![]() MELD 3.0 affords more accurate mortality prediction in general than MELDNa and addresses determinants of wait list outcomes, including the sex disparity.Įnd-Stage Liver Disease Outcome Prediction Wait List Mortality.Ĭopyright © 2021. In the Liver Simulated Allocation Model analysis, MELD 3.0 resulted in fewer wait list deaths compared to MELDNa (7788 vs 7850 P =. Importantly, MELD 3.0 correctly reclassified a net of 8.8% of decedents to a higher MELD tier, affording them a meaningfully higher chance of transplantation, particularly in women. The final model (MELD 3.0) had better discrimination than MELDNa (C-statistic, 0.869 vs 0.862 P <. The final multivariable model was characterized by (1) additional variables of female sex and serum albumin, (2) interactions between bilirubin and sodium and between albumin and creatinine, and (3) an upper bound for creatinine at 3.0 mg/dL. Model fit was tested using the concordance statistic (C-statistic) and reclassification, and the Liver Simulated Allocation Model was used to estimate the impact of replacing MELDNa with the new model. Uni- and multivariable Cox models were developed to predict survival up to 90 days after wait list registration. were performed to analyze the risk factors for AKI and mortality after OLT. The objective was to optimize MELD further by taking into account additional variables and updating coefficients with contemporary data.Īll candidates registered on the liver transplant wait list in the US national registry from January 2016 through December 2018 were included. The role of the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score in predicting. The current version (MELDNa), consisting of the international normalized ratio and serum bilirubin, creatinine, and sodium, has been used to determine organ allocation priorities for liver transplantation in the United States. It is a better predictor of perioperative mortality than the Childs scoring system and therefore has replaced it. The MELD score is an objective model that predicts a patients 90-day mortality while waiting for a liver transplant. The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) has been established as a reliable indicator of short-term survival in patients with end-stage liver disease. The Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) is a scoring system for prioritizing patients for liver transplantation.
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